October 28, 2025
by Stephen T. Messenger
Many of us deal with challenging environments where things change rapidly and it’s difficult to understand what’s happening. Another way of saying this: “It’s like the Wild West out there!”
One popular military and business planning acronym tries to capture this narrative: VUCA which stands for volatility, uncertainty, complexity, and ambiguity. It’s often heard echoing throughout the halls of planning teams, throwing out the term when things get tough. But if you listen closely, you’ll see that VUCA is talked about by many and understood by few.
Countless people use these four terms interchangeably to infer that chaos is reigning. However, each letter has a distinct connotation that we should be able to understand and leverage the difference when we plan in complex systems.
Graphing VUCA
These four environmental challenges should be thought about as four unique situations we’ll encounter during planning. They can be graphed on a chart with the x-axis being how much we know about a situation and the y-axis being how well we can predict the results of our actions.
We’ll talk about each frame below along with two examples: one military and one raising kids, a complex challenge to the most battle-hardened of us.
The Four Chaotic Horsemen
Volatility
In the top right, volatility is where we know a lot about the situation and can relatively predict what will happen. It’s when the operational environment changes rapidly and unpredictably, demanding immediate adaptation. This is when we need to build in extra resources and manning to respond rapidly to emergent situations. Keeping a reserve on hand is key.
In the military realm, a clear example of volatility was the U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan in 2021. When we announced our withdrawal, we knew there would be violence, anger, and panic, but we didn’t predict the rapid change in the environment, immediate escalation, and sudden decision pressure laid upon U.S. military forces. The situation escalated with insufficient support to handle the crisis, quickly leading an uncontrollable situation.
At home, volatility feels much the same, smaller in scale but no less intense. An infant creates a volatile environment. We know about babies, we can read books about them, and there are over 100 million born each year. We can also predict what will happen when we feed, care for, or neglect them. However, they are rapid change agents acting with volatility, crying randomly, waking up at all hours, and often unpredictable.
Uncertainty
In the bottom right, uncertainty is having high knowledge but low predictive capability. It’s the ability to know a lot about a situation but possessing the difficulty of predicting how our actions will generate desired change. Here, we know that change is likely, but it’s hard to predict. In this situation, we need to continue to collect information to mitigate surprises. This will reduce uncertainty through understanding intelligence and using communication.
Militarily, the United States knows a lot about China. We study their goals, capabilities, and vision for achieving their objectives specifically through their 100-year anniversary in 2049. But what we don’t know is when or what actions they will take regarding Taiwan, building an alternate world order, and militarizing regional areas. There’s deep uncertainty about what they will do next, and we can’t predict their timing or choices.
Likewise as parents, uncertainty defines the toddler years. We know our kids well. We raised them and shape their environment. But as they explore, they become unpredictable. This is especially true with boys who find danger at every corner, thinking they can fly, creating bike ramps, and sticking things in electrical sockets. We have knowledge, but little foresight.
Complexity
In the top left, Complexity denotes low knowledge but high predictive capability. It demonstrates the difficulty to understand the interactions of multiple parts or factors. Here, we have some predictive capability of the primary and subsequent effects of changing one or more factors in a highly interdependent system or even system of systems, but each action creates more problems. To counter, we should find specialists to address each part of the system.
In military operations, the counterinsurgency in Iraq exemplified complexity. We faced sectarian dynamics, tribal politics, insurgent networks, Iranian influence, and regional spillover, all acting in unpredictable ways. We struggled to understand this unknown environment, and kept trying things to make the situation better, all while affecting other parts of the system that had different consequences.
In parenting, complexity takes shape during the teenage years. We have less visibility into our children’s academic and social life outside the home, but know there are educational, social, physical, and mental pressures, each acting in unpredictable ways. When we engage our teens, we know our actions will trigger other reactions in their world.
Ambiguity
Finally, ambiguity is low knowledge and low predictive capability. It’s a special kind of uncertainty, one born not of chaos, but of interpretation. Different people see the same situation differently because contextual clues are missing or unclear. In these cases, we must experiment, test ideas, and learn through adaptation.
Militarily, ambiguity defines the debate over AI and autonomous weapons. Countries now use drones and AI to target enemy combatants. There is ambiguity about their ethical use, legal accountability, and impact on deterrence. When does too much technology in war become morale overreach? Perspectives vary widely.
In parenting, ambiguity thrives when kids leave home. Once they’re in college or working, we have limited knowledge about their lives and can’t predict their futures or outcomes. They are on their own. We can only provide injects with caution, try to help them in ways they are appreciative, and continue to love them even when we see “unknown unknowns” in their lives
VUCA: Not Just a Buzz Word
Too often, we throw around the word VUCA as a tagline inferring: “It’s bananas out there!” But each letter points to a distinct environmental challenge. Recognizing the difference matters because how we respond to volatility is not how we should handle ambiguity.
Next time we find ourselves in a fast-changing or uncertain environment, whether planning military operations or parenting children of all ages, pause and ask how much we know about the situation and how well we can predict what results will come from our actions.
Then we’ll know we’re not just VUCA, but we’re understanding the environment and thinking about how to best lead through it.
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